Thomas Bulkowski and the Statistics of Chart Patterns
Bulkowski counted thousands of chart patterns to measure which ones really work and how often they fail.
Trade a real day like Thomas Bulkowski
A real market day with the date hidden. Run the checklist on the chart, then buy, sell or stay out: the real candles answer.
Check every point of the list before you decide. Stay out if the setup is not there.
Who they were
Thomas Bulkowski is a former engineer who turned to studying the stock market. He catalogued thousands of chart patterns by hand and by software.
His "Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns" (first published in 2000, with later editions) gives failure rates, average moves and the conditions that improve each pattern.
Principles and rules
1. Measure, do not assume
A pattern's reputation means nothing without numbers.
2. Breakout direction
Wait for the breakout: many patterns can break either way.
3. Failure rates
Every pattern fails a meaningful share of the time; plan for it.
4. Context improves odds
Trend, volume and the market's direction change how patterns perform.
Key lessons
- Trade the confirmed breakout, not the pattern's shape.
- Use the measured move as a target, not a promise.
- Keep your own statistics.
Strategies from this method
How to practise it
The bull flag, ascending triangle and double bottom strategy pages have the rules. In Candlemind your journal shows your own statistics per strategy.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns?
Thomas Bulkowski's reference book with statistics on how dozens of chart patterns perform.
Do chart patterns work?
Some show a measurable edge in specific conditions; all fail regularly, so risk management matters.
Summaries and paraphrases of public books and interviews, for education. Not investment advice.