Active since the 1970s · Stocks · Technical analyst
Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis Explained
Classify every chart into one of four stages and only own markets in Stage 2.
Who they were
Stan Weinstein published the newsletter "The Professional Tape Reader" and the book "Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets" (1988), which introduced stage analysis to a wide audience.
His method is simple enough to be applied to any weekly chart and has influenced many later traders, including Mark Minervini.
Principles and rules
1. Four stages
Stage 1 basing, Stage 2 advancing, Stage 3 topping, Stage 4 declining.
2. The 30-week average
The slope of the 30-week moving average and the position of price relative to it identify the stage.
3. Buy Stage 2 breakouts
Buy when price breaks out of a Stage 1 base above a rising average, on strong volume.
4. Never own Stage 4
No matter how cheap a stock looks, a declining 30-week average means stay away.
5. Relative strength
Prefer stocks that are stronger than the market.
Key lessons
- A single moving average can define the regime.
- Avoiding Stage 4 matters more than catching every Stage 2.
- Volume confirms breakouts.
Strategies from this method
How to practise it
The stage analysis strategy page has the rules. In Candlemind, before each trade label the stage on the 4H chart with a long moving average.
Frequently asked questions
What are the four stages of Stan Weinstein?
Basing (Stage 1), advancing (Stage 2), topping (Stage 3) and declining (Stage 4).
What moving average does Weinstein use?
The 30-week simple moving average.
Summaries and paraphrases of public books and interviews, for education. Not investment advice.